Warga Nahdliyin, Partai Politik, dan Pilihan Presiden 2024: Antara Identitas Keagamaan, Jaringan Organisasi, dan Preferensi Elektoral

Abstract

Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) is the largest Islamic organisation in Indonesia and is often assumed to constitute a cohesive electoral base. However, the 2024 election once again demonstrated that the numerical strength of Nahdliyin does not automatically translate into electoral consolidation. This article analyses how religious identity and organisational attachment to NU shaped voters’ choices of political parties and presidential candidates in the 2024 election. The study draws on a large-scale national survey (N = 5,500), supplemented by extensive surveys in two of NU’s main strongholds, East Java and Central Java (N ≈ 20,900). Analytically, the study distinguishes between cultural affinity with NU and active membership in NU organisations, and examines the effects of both through descriptive analysis and multivariate regression. The findings show that NU’s electoral influence is not monolithic. Cultural affinity with NU continues to shape party choice, particularly support for PKB and PPP, but its effect is limited and tends to weaken after controlling for demographic factors and political evaluations. By contrast, active membership in NU has a much stronger and more consistent electoral effect, both on party choice and on presidential candidate preference. These findings bridge the intense debate between the politik aliran and dealignment perspectives by showing that religious affiliation has not disappeared altogether. Rather, it now operates conditionally through organisational networks and fragmented elite cues.